Lack of Confidence Storm

Lots of variation for something so close

Well, here we go with an early start to hurricane season. Rather unexpectedly on Wednesday morning a big low pressure area that was heading south toward the Gulf kicked off some truly exceptional lightning, thunder and rain that totally overwhelmed the pumping system and temporarily flooded many areas of the city. Since it was pouring down rain when I'd normally go to work I opted to stay home, which turned out to be a good call. My the middle of the day the shit had hit the fan. Tulane shut down for the duration, but by the time Candy got out of the Tidewater building on Canal Street the bottom floor of the building had over a foot of water in it and of course the elevators were not running. The streets were already flooded, so driving downtown to pick her up was not an option. She decided to walk home the long way, down St. Charles Avenue, since the other options through mid-city were probably going to be pretty bad.

Wednesday, downtown

I made an attempt to meet her in the car on St. Charles but didn't get more than a quarter mile before turning back. Broadway was flooded down around Willow and there was a power line that was down there so the street was closed. I knew South Claiborne would be six feet deep at State and Nashville, so there really wasn't any safe way to get there. Unfortunately, when I got in the car I discovered that the floor was soaking wet. The driver's side window hadn't been all the way up, so water had been getting in throughout the day.  The house was high and dry here on the Neron Knoll as I call it, so after a while I got on the bike and rode down Broadway, which by then was passable, and met her on St. Charles around Louisiana. By then the pumps were starting to catch up and the rain was slacking off. Thanks to the spectacular amount and intensity of the rain, our next-door neighbor had water pouring into his kitchen from a gap above a window where a badly installed gutter was allowing water to pour down the side of the house. Another neighbor down the block now has a blue tarp over part of his roof, so I guess he discovered a new leak as well.

The river level up toward Destrehan somewhere this morning. Lots of levee still in reserve.

Unfortunately, that was all just a prelude to development of a tropical storm once the low got past the coast and into the warm Gulf waters. The storm tracks were, and still are, all over the place. Even now, on Thursday evening, there's still very little confidence in any of the models. It could go to the west, it could go right over us, it could even go to the east of us. Whatever, everyone's expecting a lot of rain in the Friday-Saturday timeframe and possibly well into Sunday. Although the low-lying areas south of the city are being evacuated, most people are staying in town for this one, I think.  Looking out the window I can see that the winds have picked up considerably over the past couple of hours and are around 15 mph from the ENE. That northern component is still pulling in some slightly drier air, and the sun has been out most of the day.

This morning I went out later than usual since I didn't have to go in to work. I saw the 6 am group heading back after obviously turning back a little early. The sun was shining and the wind wasn't bad, so I ended up going all the way out to Ormond and back. It wasn't much of a workout, really. I always have trouble pushing myself when I'm riding by myself.

As I'm writing this, the city is sending out an official Tropical Storm Warning, not to be confused with a "watch." There's been a lot of concern about the river as well. It's still running near flood stage where it's been for a couple of months, and with the expected southeast wind from the storm they are anticipating a surge up to 19 feet (flood stage it 16 at this gauge). Riding along the levee this morning it's clear that the river is, at the moment, lower than it's been in at least a month. The batture is still mostly flooded, and I stopped during my ride to watch a big alligator cruising along between the levee and the trees, but in most places the water is just at or below the foot of the man-made levee.

The next couple of days should be interesting.